This section contains information about the construction starts data available in Forecast. Included is a definition of historical and forecasted construction starts data, description of how the data is compiled, data sources and organization, update frequency, definitions of the data and a brief overview of the methodology used.
This section contains the following topics:
Forecast contains both historical and forecasted construction starts data. ConstructConnect reports construction starts in terms of project value (nominal dollars) and square feet. For Forecast, this means that a start value is the estimate of the square foot value or total dollar value of construction work started in a given time period. Reported project values include the costs for labor and materials, overhead, interest and taxes paid during construction and contractor's profits.
There are minor differences in the definition of a start between the United States and Canada:
United States
For the U.S., a start is defined as the date that a project reaches the start stage, as verified and reported by the U.S. ConstructConnect research team.
Canada
A Canadian start is defined as the date that a project reaches the start stage, as verified and reported by the Canadian ConstructConnect research team.
ConstructConnect reports on new and existing structures for the private and public sector. The data in Forecast covers the following categories:
Summary category | Primary category | Subcategory |
Civil | Civil |
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Non-Residential | Commercial |
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Community |
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Education |
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Government |
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Industrial |
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Medical |
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Military |
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Retail |
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Residential | Residential |
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Residential (Census) | Residential |
Note: Single-Family starts for the most previous month are an estimate from Oxford Economics. Actuals are updated for the next calendar month. |
The data in Forecast covers the following geographies:
United States
Canada
Both historical and forecasted starts are updated on a quarterly basis, reflecting the most current macroeconomic and construction starts data. Currently the data is published in the last week of the month following the close of each quarter, in January, April, July, and October.
Two of the most common ways to measure the construction market are construction starts and put-in-place:
Overall, construction starts data is derived from the ConstructConnect database. Single family starts data is derived from the U. S. Census Bureau and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and macroeconomic data comes from Oxford Economics.
ConstructConnect collects information on public and private construction projects across the United States and Canada.
The primary data collection methods are:
Reporting
Partnerships and alliances
Technology and automation
For ConstructConnect, a forecast is the calculated start on a project in the future. The forecast value is derived using historical starts from the ConstructConnect database and data modeling provided by Oxford Economics. As a forecast includes historical starts, the costs for labor and materials, overhead, interest and taxes paid during construction and contractor's profits are part of a forecast value. However, design costs, such as architectural and engineering, are not included.
The following table lists the drivers by sector that are used in determining starts.
Sector | Short-term drivers | Long-term drivers |
Residential | Unemployment rate, household liabilities, mortgage interest rates, house prices, population trends | House prices, personal incomes |
Non-residential building | Output trends in relevant sector, population trends, capacity utilization, Borrowing costs, employment in relevant sector, disposable income | Output trends and employment in relevant sector |
Civil engineering | Federal/State/Provincial spending, government borrowing costs, employment in government sector, output trends in relevant sector | Federal/State/Provincial spending, Output trends in relevant sector |
The following diagram illustrates the process for converting our data and Oxford Economic data into the economic data available in Forecast:
All projects reported by ConstructConnect are followed continuously by our network of reporters, ensuring that the starts data are consistently accurate even when projects are re-bid or abandoned.
Note: Updates to Forecast historical starts are frozen at a rolling 12-month calendar based on the current month.
The data for single-family construction starts is a combination of unit, square foot and project values and extrapolated using a proprietary formula. While the methodology used is consistent for both the U.S. and Canada, there are some differences in the data sources:
United States
The U.S. single-family construction starts are derived using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Canada
The Canadian single-family construction starts are derived using data from CMHC (unit) and ConstructConnect (square foot and project).