Understanding Construction Starts

This section contains information about the construction starts data available in Forecast. Included is a definition of historical and forecasted construction starts data, description of how the data is compiled, data sources and organization, update frequency, definitions of the data and a brief overview of the methodology used.

This section contains the following topics:

What is a Construction Start?

A construction start date usually occurs within a month or two of the bid date. In concept, a start is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed.

There are minor differences in the definition of a start between the United States and Canada:

Construction Starts in the United States

For the U.S., a start is defined as the date that a project reaches the start stage, as verified and reported by the U.S. ConstructConnect research team.

Construction Starts in Canada

A Canadian start is defined as the date that a project reaches the start stage, as verified and reported by the Canadian ConstructConnect research team.

Construction Starts in Forecast

Forecast contains both historical and forecasted construction starts data. ConstructConnect reports construction starts in terms of project value (nominal dollars) and square feet. For Forecast, this means that a start value is the estimate of the square foot value or total dollar value of construction work started in a given time period. Reported project values include the costs for labor and materials, overhead, interest and taxes paid during construction and contractor's profits.

Categories Covered in Forecast

ConstructConnect reports on new and existing structures for the private and public sector. The data in Forecast covers the following categories:

Summary category	Primary category	Subcategory
Civil	Civil	Airport - includes Airport Construction, All Other Civil - includes Parks, Landscaping, Railroad & Subway, Sidewalks, Curbs, Gutters, Military Non Building, Athletic Fields & Courts, Swimming Pools, Demolition (Civil), Electrical Work (Civil), Fencing, Machinery & Supplies, Pavement Markers, Tunnels, Miscellaneous (Civil), Sitework, Oil and Gas Pipelines Bridges - includes Bridges & Culverts Dams/Canals/Marine Work - includes Dams, Canals, Flood Control, Marine Work Roads - includes Roads Water & Sewage Treatment - includes Water & Sewage Treatment, Water & Sewage Piping Power Infrastructure - includes Power Lines & Stations
Non-Residential	Commercial	Offices - includes Offices, Broadcast Studios Parking Garages - includes Parking Garages Transportation Terminals – includes Airport, Bus, Train and Ferry Terminals, and Subway Stations
	Community	Amusement - includes Movies & Entertainment, Park Buildings, Auditoriums, Clubs, Community Centers, Golf Courses / Country Clubs Library / Museum - includes Libraries, Museums, Art Galleries Religious - includes Religious Classrooms, Religious Auditoriums, Churches, Mosques, Synagogues, Temples Sports / Convention Center - includes Arenas / Convention Centers
	Education	Education (Canada) - includes Canada All Education College / University - includes School Laboratories, Dormitories, College, University – Miscellaneous Elementary / Preschool - includes School Auditoriums, Classrooms, Elementary & Preschools Junior / Senior High School - includes Cafeterias, Gyms & Athletic Buildings, Jr / Sr High Schools, High Schools, Junior High Schools, Senior Special / Vocational - includes Special Schools, Vocational Training
	Government	Courthouse - includes Courthouses Governmental Offices - includes Post Offices, Government – Miscellaneous Buildings, Governmental Offices Police / Fire - includes Fire, Police Stations, Customs Buildings Prisons - includes Prisons, Jails, Juvenile Detention Facilities, Correctional Centres
	Industrial	Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs - includes Laboratories, Industrial Laboratories Manufacturing - includes Manufacturing, Processing Plants Warehouses - includes Warehouses, Office / Warehouses, Rental Warehouses
	Medical	Hospitals / Clinics - includes Hospitals, Clinics, Kennels Medical miscellaneous - includes Medical Offices, Outpatient Surgery Centers, Imaging Centers Nursing Homes / Assisted Living - includes Nursing Homes, Assisted Living Facilities, Independent Living Facilities, Long-Term Care Facilities, Hospice
	Military	Military - includes Military Housing, Military Offices, Military – Miscellaneous
	Retail	Hotels / Motels - includes Hotels, Motels, Hotels, Budget, Hotels, Economy, Hotels, Mid-Price, Hotels, Upscale, Hotels, Luxury Retail Miscellaneous - includes Automotive, Bank Branches, Funeral Homes, Restaurants Shopping - includes Individual Stores, Shopping Centers, Food Stores
Residential	Residential	Multi-Family - includes Townhomes, Condominiums, Apartments
Residential (Census)	Residential	Single-Family - includes Single-Family Homes Note: Single-Family starts for the most previous month are an estimate from Oxford Economics. Actuals are updated for the next calendar month.

Geographies Covered in Forecast

The data in Forecast covers the following geographies:

United States

National
State
Metropolitan statistical area (MSA) – 363 metropolitan statistical areas
County – over 3000 state counties are included

Canada

National
Provincial

Frequency of Updates to Forecast Data

Both historical and forecasted starts are updated on a quarterly basis, reflecting the most current macroeconomic and construction starts data. Currently the data is published in the last week of the month following the end of each quarter (January, April, July, and October).

Construction Starts vs. Put-in-Place Construction Spending

Two of the most common ways to measure the construction market are:

Construction Starts

Construction Starts report the total project value or total square feet of projects at the time they are started. Starts are seen as a leading indicator of construction spending and investment.

Put-in-Place

Put-in-place is an aggregate value of work done, regardless of when contractors are paid or when work is begun. Put-in-place excludes projects in the planning stage and is limited to reporting the final cost per month, which can in turn omit variables occurring over the lifetime of a project.

Data Sources for Forecast

Overall, construction starts data is derived from the ConstructConnect database. Single family starts data is derived from the U. S. Census Bureau and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and macroeconomic data comes from Oxford Economics.

How We Collect Data Collection for Forecast

ConstructConnect collects information on public and private construction projects across the United States and Canada.

The primary data collection methods are:

Reporting

ConstructConnect reporters develop and maintain relationships with various sources throughout the construction industry including, but not limited to, owners, developers, architects, and contractors.

Partnerships and Alliances

ConstructConnect maintains strategic partnerships and alliances with key industry organizations to enhance data collection efforts.

Technology and Automation

ConstructConnect uses advanced technology and automation to aggregate information on public construction projects.

How We Forecast Construction Starts

For ConstructConnect, a forecast is the calculated start on a project in the future. The forecast value is derived using historical starts from the ConstructConnect database and data modeling provided by Oxford Economics. As a forecast includes historical starts, the costs for labor and materials, overhead, interest and taxes paid during construction and contractor's profits are part of a forecast value. However, design costs, such as architectural and engineering, are not included.

The following table lists the drivers by sector that are used in determining starts:

Sector	Short-term drivers	Long-term drivers
Residential	Unemployment rate, household liabilities, mortgage interest rates, house prices, population trends	House prices, personal incomes
Non-residential building	Output trends in relevant sector, population trends, capacity utilization, Borrowing costs, employment in relevant sector, disposable income	Output trends and employment in relevant sector
Civil engineering	Federal/State/Provincial spending, government borrowing costs, employment in government sector, output trends in relevant sector	Federal/State/Provincial spending, Output trends in relevant sector

How We Convert Data into Construction Starts

The following diagram illustrates the process for converting our data and Oxford Economic data into the economic data available in Forecast:

Updates to Forecast Historical Starts Data

All projects reported by ConstructConnect are followed continuously by our network of reporters, ensuring that the starts data are consistently accurate even when projects are re-bid or abandoned.

NOTE: Updates to Forecast historical starts are frozen at a rolling 12-month calendar based on the current month.

Single-Family Method

The data for single-family construction starts is a combination of unit, square foot and project values and extrapolated using a proprietary formula. While the methodology used is consistent for both the U.S. and Canada, there are some differences in the data sources:

United States

The U.S. single-family construction starts are derived using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Canada

The Canadian single-family construction starts are derived using data from CMHC (unit) and ConstructConnect (square foot and project).